Struktura i dynamika wielogeneracyjnych starodrzewów sosnowych występujących w obszarach ochrony ścisłej Kaliszki i Sieraków w Kampinoskim Parku Narodowym. Część 2. Procesy zamierania i dorastania oraz ich wpływ na rozkład grubości drzew

Two fundamental demographic processes (tree recruitment and mortality) are analyzed for forest stands growing on permanent study plots located in strictly protected Scots pine−dominated, old−growth stands of Kampinos National Park (central Poland). The major implications of the observed demographic trends for the general shape of tree size distributions are determined, as well. During the past ca 30 years, in the stands sampled, there was a pronounced lack of balance between mortality and recruitment processes. Mortality rate was eight times higher than recruitment rate. Eventually, there was a net significant decline in population density, observed for all major tree species, including Scots pine, pedunculate oak, silver and downy birch, and black alder. As mortality processes affected mainly smaller trees, there was also a significant deterioration of the general demographic status of most important tree species. This effect was shown by the change of the overall shape of diameter distributions over the study period: from reverse J−shaped to flat curves running nearly parallel to X−axis. The values of recruitment rates were markedly lower, and the values of mortality rates – significantly higher, than analogous values characterizing comparable forests (e.g., those obtained for the natural stands of Białowieża National Park). Low recruitment rates, as obtained for Kampinos stands, suggest that presently, in the local, Scots pine−dominated, old−growth stands, the general conditions for forest regeneration and for maintaining a long−term demographic stability are unfavorable. Most probably, the regeneration of this type of forest has an episodic, ‘wave−like’ character and corresponds to the ‘catastrophic’ model, according to which the successful regeneration of current dominants (especially Scots pine, silver and downy birch, black alder) must be preceded by a stand−initiating (stand−replacing) disturbance, leading to total or partial, but heavy, destruction of the currently existing stand. At the moment, it would be difficult to predict, however, if and when such a disturbance will affect the stands under investigation. Thus, we predict that in the nearest future at least, the state of overall demographic unbalance will continue or even increase.