Modelling of agricultural commodity price effects on the fiscal performance and economic growth in Ukraine

This paper analyses the effects of agricultural raw materials prices upon fiscal policy indicators and gross domestic product (GDP) output in Ukraine, on the basis of the VAR/VEC model using quarterly data for the period of 2002–2018. The results indicate a positive effect of agricultural commodity prices on GDP, with both government expenditure and revenue declining in the wake of favorable commodity price developments. As expected, higher agricultural commodity prices are associated with a real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, which in turn brings about an increase in government expenditure and revenue combined with an expansionary effect on GDP. Furthermore, agricultural commodity price and RER shocks are characterized by asymmetrical effects upon output. Among other results, there are positive output effects by both government expenditures and revenues, while the reverse causality suggests a decrease in fiscal variables following an increase in GDP. Several implications for stabilization policies are discussed.