Modelling of exchange rate effects and complimentaries between agriculture and industry in Ukraine

This paper examines links between the exchange rate, agricultural and industrial outputs in Ukraine. This is estimated using monthly data for the 2001−2015 period. Results provide evidence that there is a positive spillover from agriculture to industry, being in line with modern arguments on the role of agricultural sector in economic growth (infrastructural spillovers, rural income effects, provision of resources for an industrialized economy). However, industrial output squeezes out agricultural production in the short run. Depreciation of the nominal (real) exchange rate has an expansionary effect on industrial output, but it is harmful for agriculture. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that agriculture-supporting policies should be productive in the industrialization context either.