Uncertainty analysis of production in open pit mines – operational parameter regression analysis of mining machinery

In mining uncertainties related to equipment and operation are major reasons for loss of production. In order to address this issue, a wide literature review was done in this study. It showed that reliability of equipment, spare part availability, automation of equipment are researched areas focused. However, a methodology which relates operational issues directly to production levels has been not studied with detailed analysis. In order to overcome this issue and propose, a method to achieve production assurance is the objective of this study. A case study with 2.5 years of data from a large open pit mine is carried out. Following the statistical principles, multiple regressions modelling with details analysis, optimization of payload and interpretation of analysis are used. It showed that at system level availability, utilization and maximum capacities are important criteria for finding root cause in loss of production. Model for shovel fleet showed that availability is the most important characteristics hindering it to achieve a higher level of production. It was also seen that 3 to 4 number of shovels are optimal for achieving current level of production. For truck fleet model represented that capacities involved are less important factor as compared to the utilization of the fleet.