Czynniki warunkujące opłacalność produkcji wybranych produktów rolniczych w perspektywie 2020 roku

Volatility of farming conditions makes farmers resort ever more often to different tools helping them in the decision-making process. What also increases is the demand for results of forecasts and projections which are aimed at encouraging to take up actions to strengthen the development trend considered as favourable or to counteract the one recognized as undesirable. The results of projections for 2020, prepared under ordinary conditions, i.e. resulting from long-term trends, point to decreasing profitability of winter wheat farming by 2.4 percentage points, and spring barley by 8.6 percentage points given a stronger growth rate of costs over income. For rye and winter rape farming, it is expected that profitability will improve by 6.2 and 4.8 percentage points, respectively. Whereas, the profitability of sugar beet farming will most likely remain at a level similar to the reference years for the projection (2011-2013). Research showed that fluctuations in the selling prices, which are caused by changes over the years, have a stronger impact on the level of income than crop fluctuations. Rye and rape are the most sensitive to crop and price fluctuations. Costs are another important element of profitability account. Among the examined field crops, rye farming was characterized by the greatest sensitivity, which means that a unit change in their level has the strongest impact on a change in income.