Koncepcja rozwoju sektora mlecznego w EU, proponowane instrumenty jej wdrożenia i przewidywalne skutki po 2014 roku

The main objective of this article is to present the concept of the EU dairy sector development through the analysis of proposals for changes in EU agricultural policy and to assess their possible effects on Polish dairy farms. In the paper a model concerning possible directions of development of Polish farms with an average production potential was presented. The analyzes revealed that the idea of deeper liberalization of the EU milk market will contribute to its greater instability. The model calculations carried out for an average Polish farm showed that developing crop production (especially in farms with good quality land) is more profitable than keeping milk production. Proposed after 2014 policy instruments do not stimulate the development of “average” dairy farms.