Zmiany zasiegu chorob transmitowanych przez komary pod wplywem globalnego ocieplenia klimatu

Climate models suggest the strong possibility of range increase of the diseases transmitted by parasitic arthropods, mostly mosquitoes. In predicting processes of malaria and Dengue diseases dispersion the estimation of risk is based mostly on reproduction rate of vector species. These models allow to calculate the critical threshold of host density which is necessary to maintain parasites and pathogens transmission. Such studies based on integrated mathematical modelling indicate widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for mosquito−borne diseases transmission. This predicted increase is the most pronounced at the borders of the endemic areas and at higher altitudes within malaria and Dengue areas. The simulated change in mosquito−borne diseases risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions as well as the effects of socio−economic developments and control disease programs. Apart from mathematical models the sequencing of proteins and DNA of vectors and their pathogens as well as satellite technology (GIS) are taken into consideration. It is supposed that potential impact of global climate change on malaria and Dengue risk can be reduced by constant warning system based on biological monitoring of mosquito vector species and their pathogens. Efficient care system connected with full diagnosis, treatment and prophylaxis of transmission diseases are also required.