Warunki meteorologiczne wegetacji roślin uprawnych na obszarze województwa podkarpackiego w latach 1981-2016

Celem pracy było przedstawienie wybranych skutków agrometeorologicznych współczesnych zmian klimatu w okresie wegetacyjnym IV–X w aspekcie regionalnym na przykładzie obecnego województwa podkarpackiego. Okres badań obejmował ostatnie 36-lecie – 1981–2016. Jest to okres, w którym zaobserwowano na świecie i w Polsce wyraźny wzrost temperatury powietrza wywołany ociepleniem klimatu. Wykorzystano miesięczne średnie obszarowe wartości temperatury i opadów atmosferycznych oraz komunikaty i relacje o stanie upraw pod koniec miesiąca zamieszczane sukcesywnie w wydawnictwach statystycznych, agrometeorologicznych i rolniczych. Wykazano, że w badanym okresie wegetacyjnym istotny statystycznie wzrost temperatury powietrza szacować można na 0,44°C na 10 lat przy nieistotnie statystycznym wzroście opadów atmosferycznych. Mimo postępującego ocieplenia stwierdzono pogarszanie się meteorologicznych warunków wegetacji przejawiające się wprawdzie nieistotnie statystycznym spadkiem liczby miesięcy o sprzyjających warunkach pluwiotermicznych o wartości 0,19 miesiąca na 10 lat. Stwierdzono nieistotną statystycznie tendencję do zwiększania się liczby miesięcy suchych na poziomie 0,20 miesiąca na 10 lat.

The aim of this paper was to present selected agrometeorological consequences of present-day climate change in the April-October growing period in its regional aspect, based on the example of the area which is now the Subcarpathian Voivodeship. The period of research encompassed the last 36 years: 1981–2016. This was a period when a significant increase in air temperature, caused by climate warming, was noted in Poland and worldwide. Monthly mean regional temperature and precipitation values, as well as reports on the state of crops at the end of each month, were used in the research. These were reports regularly included in statistical, agrometeorological, and agricultural publications. According to agricultural correspondents’ accounts of the state of crops at the end of each month, the pluvio-thermal conditions were labelled either as favourable or unfavourable. Unfavourable conditions included insufficiently high temperature, very low precipitation, excessive precipitation, insufficiently high temperature combined with excessive precipitation, very low temperature and very low precipitation, and finally very high temperature combined with insufficient precipitation. The classification of favourable and unfavourable pluviothermal conditions was based exclusively on the correspondents’ accounts, rather than on temperature or precipitation values. In order to illustrate the effects of progressive warming, the results concerning the frequency of favourable and various unfavourable meteorological conditions for plant growth were presented for four successive nine-year periods of the 36-year observation period of 1981–2016. These were the periods 1981–1989, 1990–1998, 1999–2007 and 2008–2016. The correlation coefficients and regression equations for meteorological elements and indices were used to determine the significance of the most important changes observed. These included air temperature and precipitation totals during the growing period from April to October, as well as the number of months favourable to plant growth and the number of dry months during the growing period over time. Correlation coefficients were considered significant at 0.05. In the period studied, a statistically significant increase was shown in air temperature during the growing period, estimated at 0.44°C a decade, and a slight but noticeable, statistically insignificant increasing trend in precipitation. Meteorological conditions for plant growth are deteriorating as a result of the increased aridity of the climate, manifested as an increase in the frequency of months that are both hot and dry, especially in June, July and August, despite unclear and statistically insignificant increasing trends in precipitation.