The Belt and Road Initiative as a tool for promoting EU–China trade. Poland’s case

The aim of the study is to evaluate the potential role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for promoting EU – China trade, and especially Poland – China trade. We test two hypotheses: 1) Non-tariff barriers (NTBs), particularly related to railway transport, are significant for Poland – China trade, and 2) Poland – China trade fits railway transport well. Therefore, we start with a study of the significance of tariff and non-tariff barriers in mutual trade relations, including transport-related barriers. NTBs are mainly derived from the EU Market Access database, and as for transport-related barriers – the logistics performance index (LPI) is used. As the next step, we study the composition of bilateral trade in static and dynamic terms using the OECD TiVA database. In the light of the significant increase in NTBs on EU manufacturing products exported to China and the railway transport infrastructure performance in Poland, the BRI could become an effective tool for improving the business environment for EU exporters. By contrast, the BRI project is more suitable for China and the EU as a whole than for Poland in terms of commodity structure of bilateral trade.