Continuity of leadership in Slovenian local government: analysys of mayoral re-election

This paper analyses the political career of a key executive body in the Slovenian local self-government system – the mayor. The paper first introduces incumbency advantage theories. These theories argue that the probability of electoral victory or defeat is not homogeneously distributed among the candidates, as several factors influence the possibilities of success of some candidates and the failure of others (seniority, membership of political parties, electoral performance, etc). Based on an analysis of objective data and data from an empirical survey conducted among mayors of Slovenian municipalities, we look at the re-election of mayors in Slovenian local self-government with the emphasis on their seniority. We find that the re-election of mayors is a frequent occurrence in Slovenia and is a trend that is also increasing with every local election from 1998 onward.