Strategic Environment of East Asia in 2017–18 Analysis of Key Trends and Issues

The international security environment of East Asia is undergoing dynamic changes. This articleis another instalment in a series of analysis initiated by the “Strategic Review” in 2017. It deals with international security situation in various regions. The article’s main aim is to present the influence of selected international events of 2017’s second half and 2018s first half on the evolution of East Asia’s long term international security environment. In order to achievethis aim the author has posed two research questions: what long term trends have the strongest influence on international security environment of East Asia? and, do key events of 2017–18 increase or decrease stability of the regional security environment? Following research methods have been adopted to solve this research problem: the comparative method, legal-institutional analysis and forecasting method based on identification of key trends shaping the evolutionof the studied phenomenon. The main conclusions are twofold. First, the most important long term trends shaping the international security environment of East Asia are, on the one side, the growing bipolarity of the regional order (with US and PRC as main protagonists) and, on the other side, other player’s attempts to increase the degree of their own autonomy. The events of 2017–18 show that almost all regional powers act to limit the tensions. It doesn’t change thefact that long term trends point towards a growing confrontation of two contradictory visions of regional order – one championed by USA, and the other by PRC.