Japonia i Tajwan – strategiczna konwergencja

My paper attempts to analyze how the geopolitical strategic interests of Japan and Taiwan impact each other. I argue that the growing concerns of the Taiwanese population over the increasing influence of China and the ongoing “normalization” i.e., remilitarization and increasing global and regional activism of Japan, are trends that point towards a convergence of interests between the two countries. If Taiwan (especially after the recent DPP takeover) tries to assure its sovereignty by standing up to China, then it will badly need as many regional allies as possible. On the other hand, the continuing de facto sovereignty of Taiwan is a de facto vital geopolitical interest of Japan, not only in the scope of its disputes with China on the East China Sea, but also in the scope of sea lanes vital to its economy. Viewed in terms of geopolitics, Taiwan provides a buffer for Japan between its southwestern islands, and China as well as an obstacle for China in its reach towards the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Taiwan also serves as a barrier between China and the open Pacific Ocean as part of the so called “first island chain”. Given this significance, the possibility of China taking over Taiwan would mean a strategic catastrophe for Japan regarding its strategic maritime rivalry with China on the East China Sea. China controlling Taiwan would also put the PLA Navy in direct access to the sea lanes connecting Japan with the straits of Malacca, vital for Japanese imports of fuel from the Middle East. At the same time, the increasing maritime and air capabilities of the Japanese armed forces are theoretically making Japan increasingly able to assist Taiwan, if Japan ever choses to do so. Also the increasing activism of Japan as a regional actor puts it in need of regional allies, and in this regard, unlike the reluctance of South Korea, Taiwanese public opinion is highly supportive of cooperation between the two countries. Thus Japan and Taiwan appear to be two countries with an increasing convergence of geopolitical interests, resulting from both their badly needed but limited access to regional allies and supportive public opinion.

Artykuł dotyczy współzależności strategicznych Japonii i Tajwanu. Są one konsekwencją z jednej strony wzrostu Chin, z drugiej coraz większej militarnej aktywności Japonii w regionie. Tajwan chcąc ochronić swój obecny status potrzebuje zbudowania silnej koalicji w regonie. Zachowanie status quo Tajwanu leży również w interesie Japonii, ze względu na jego położenie geopolityczne. Tajwan pełni rolę bariery pomiędzy Chinami a otwartym Pacyfikiem, będąc częścią tzw. pierwszego łańcuch wysp. Zatem przejęcie Tajwanu przez Chiny miałoby katastrofalne skutki dla Japonii, oraz zachwiałoby poważnie równowagę w regionie Azji i Pacyfiku.