Modelowanie oprocentowania kredytów bankowych z wykorzystaniem teorii gier i wartości likwidacyjnej

The paper presents a model for determination of interest rate on bank loan. According to the theoretical model a borrower repays the lesser of: the amount set in the credit agreement or an amount equal to the liquidation value of his assets. On this basis, the simulation model computes the expected value of bank's income from loan agreement. To verify the model we used accounting and market data of selected publicly traded companies. Unfortunately, interest rates calculated from the model does not coincide with the real averaged loan rates of the companies. The reason for the difference is probably excessive aggregation of financial data and the lack of detailed data on individual loan agreements. An additional reason may be that Polish banks pay no attention to market valuation of companies and their revenue.