Future prospects for multilateral and bilateral trade negotiations

The GATT agreement was the first to include agriculture and to cover both border protection and domestic and export subsidies for agricultural products. The round completed successfully in 1994. The subsequent Doha or Development round aimed at furthering progress launched in GATT has not been so successful. This paper explores why the Doha round has been difficult and why it now appears there will not be a meaningful agreement. Developing countries are much more numerous today in WTO, and they insist on an agreement to better their situation. Agricultural subsidies are still a major impasse between rich and poor countries. The absence of the industrial sector to balance agriculture also is an impediment. Furthermore, bilateral and regional agreements have made much more progress and provide many of the gains that might eventually come from a multilateral agreement. Recent work has concluded that domestic reforms are key to achieving the gains of any trade agreement, and they will be essential for Poland to capture the gains from EU membership.