"Arabska Wiosna" 2011 a europejska "Jesień Ludów" 1989 - próba spojrzenia porównawczego

It passed already one year since the outbreak of the „Arab Spring" of 2011 but the situation is far from clear (especially in Syria) and a lot of old problems remained. Undoubtedly, it would be very instructive to present an attempt of comparison between this revolt in Northern Africa (and in such the Arab countries as Syria and Jemen) and the demolition of communist (or perhaps rather socialist) system in Central Europe in autumn of 1989. The theoretical base for such the comparison can be provided by the so-called „neofunctional elitist paradigm", elaborated by J. Higley (with his collaborators). The main notion of this theory is the question of elite settlement - between the main elite of the existing government and of the opposition. At the same time there is the main difference between the situation in Central Europe and Northern Africa. Whether in some states of Central Europe (especially in Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic) such the opposition existed - in Northern Africa does not. And so, the perspectives for political and social transformation toward the democracy in Northern Africa is not so good as it seems.