Szanse i zagrożenia dla Irlandii Północnej po referendum i decyzji Wielkiej Brytanii o wystąpieniu z Unii Europejskiej

The purpose of this article is to analyze the opportunities and threats for Northern Ireland after the EU referendum in United Kingdom. As a basis for the research method a study based on the analysis of selected information sources was used. The referendum on the United Kingdom’s continuing membership of the European Union resulted in a victory for those wishing to leave the Union, and has become the impulse for discussions on the possible directions for future developments in Northern Ireland. There are two scenarios being considered: Northern Ireland remaining within the United Kingdom, but outside the European Union, leaving the United Kingdom and uniting with the Republic of Ireland, which would enable it to retain its membership of the European Union. A referendum on unifying Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which is supported by republicans, is currently neither justified – the lackof sufficient support of the population, nor is it possible – as the proposition would be vetoed by the main unionist parties and by the government in London which is fully committed to maintaining the unity of the United Kingdom. If, however, the unifi cation of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland occurred, in addition to the enormous initial cost, it could instigate the threat of destabilisation of the political scene and rekindle conflicts between Catholic and Protesant groups. In the long term, uniting with the Republic of Ireland would enable Northern Ireland to maintain a strong developmental impulse arising from the benefits of being a member of the EU; such as access to the Single European Market, structural funds, etc., which the province may lose if it stays within the United Kingdom. The real effects on Northern Ireland will depend on the results of the negotiations and decisions reached by the United Kingdom and the European Union on the conditions on exiting the Union and the future directions, forms and principles for further co-operation. Its economic development is of fundamental signifi cance for the future of Northern Ireland, including the peace process.