Polish Exchange Rate Policy Dilemmas in ERM II

This article presents considerations for the exchange rate regime choice from the point of view of the Polish zloty participation in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). The first part defines the conditions for an exchange rate mechanism conducive to nominal convergence and macroeconomic stability of the Polish economy before and after the euro adoption. The assessment indicates that the above objective can be achieved with a broad (+/-15%) fluctuation band. The second part contains arguments for greater flexibility of the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in assessing the fulfilment of the exchange rate criterion as a necessary condition for taking advantage of a broad +/-15% fl uctuation band. Furthermore, an emphasis is put on the need for the ECB support in intervening within this band when justified. These measures should reduce the risks of ERM II participation and make the mechanism more useful in supporting nominal and real convergence in catching up economies.