Lessons That Poland Can Learn From Brexit

The UK’s exit from the European Union has had seriously negative consequences for the British economy and society. These consequences can be taken as a serious warning to other EU countries that may wish to follow Britain’s chosen path. The warning is particularly important as regards Poland, where the far right has long been openly calling for a so-called “Polexit”. The aim of this article is to analyse and assess both the current and expected effects of Brexit, as well as the conclusions that Poland can draw from them. After presenting the background of Brexit, this analysis focuses primarily on the effects that Great Britain has experienced in the areas of trade with the EU, along with Brexit’s effects on investment, inflation, immigration, and deregulation. Public opinion survey results are also shown, indicating a negative assessment of Brexit by the majority of British society, which is increasingly demanding the restoration of the country’s ties with the EU. Next, the threats to Poland’s further participation in the EU that have arisen since 2015 are shown. Based on Britain’s experience, it can be predicted that a possible Polexit may hit the Polish economy particularly hard, primarily due to the loss of free access to the EU’s single market and a possible collapse with regard to Polish exports, as well as the predicted massive outflow of capital abroad and decline in the inflow of foreign investments. A Polexit would also mean a loss of EU funding. All this would drastically limit Poland’s development possibilities and would trigger a civilisational degradation of the country.