The Implications of Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine for the Baltic States’ Military Security to 2020

In its 2014 military doctrine, Russia defines the world as an unstable environment that is not able to provide sufficient security to Russia. In these terms, Russia looks to its large military force that would be able to protect the Russian vital sphere of interests, which supposedly also includes Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Thus, Russia strives to re-establish the control in its vital sphere of interests and the 2014 doctrine reveals the intent of it. However, the steady development of military capabilities, strong political will to defend the sovereignty along with the principle of collective defence has made the Baltic States strong enough to withstand security challenges caused by its Eastern neighbour, The Russian Federation. As a result, although the confrontation of interests in the Baltic region remains persistent, the probability of Russian direct military aggression against the Baltic States will stay low up to 2020.