Forecasting of the selected features of Poaceae (R. Br.) Barnh., Artemisia L. and Ambrosia L. pollen season in Szczecin, north-western Poland, using Gumbel’s distribution
Forecasting of the selected features of Poaceae (R. Br.) Barnh., Artemisia L. and Ambrosia L. pollen season in Szczecin, north-western Poland, using Gumbel’s distribution
Introduction and objectives. The allergenic pollen content of the atmosphere varies according to climate, biogeography
and vegetation. Minimisation of the pollen allergy symptoms is related to the possibility of avoidance of large doses of
the allergen. Measurements performed in Szczecin over a period of 13 years (2000-2012 inclusive) permitted prediction of
theoretical maximum concentrations of pollen grains and their probability for the pollen season of Poaceae, Artemisia and
Ambrosia. Moreover, the probabilities were determined of a given date as the beginning of the pollen season, the date of
the maximum pollen count, Seasonal Pollen Index value and the number of days with pollen count above threshold values.
Materials and methods. Aerobiological monitoring was conducted using a Hirst volumetric trap (Lanzoni VPPS). Linear
trend with determination coefficient (R2) was calculated. Model for long-term forecasting was performed by the method
based on Gumbel’s distribution.
Results. A statistically significant negative correlation was determined between the duration of pollen season of Poaceae
and Artemisia and the Seasonal Pollen Index value. Seasonal, total pollen counts of Artemisia and Ambrosia showed a strong
and statistically significant decreasing tendency. On the basis of Gumbel’s distribution, a model was proposed for Szczecin,
allowing prediction of the probabilities of the maximum pollen count values that can appear once in e.g. 5, 10 or 100 years.
Conclusions. Short pollen seasons are characterised by a higher intensity of pollination than long ones. Prediction of the
maximum pollen count values, dates of the pollen season beginning, and the number of days with pollen count above
the threshold, on the basis of Gumbel’s distribution, is expected to lead to improvement in the prophylaxis and therapy of
persons allergic to pollen.
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