Cyclical Fluctuations in Transport. Turning Points Detection

This paper presents the preliminary analysis of the characteristics of cyclical fluctuations in the freight transport market in Poland. The aim of the analysis is to identify, based on the estimated turning points (using the Bry Boschan method, as well as Hidden Markov Models), expansion and contraction phases in freight transport. These results are compared with the business climate indicators calculated on the basis of survey research in the freight transport.