Cykl koniunkturalny i próba jego weryfikacji na podstawie badań testem koniunktury w przemyśle

The study constitutes a theoretical approach to a business cycle in the economy supplemented with an attempt to verify it with findings of the business situation survey in the Polish industry in the systemic transformation period. A proncipal part of the study is predeced with a graphic presentation of business cycles in the economy, consisted of the four stages, according to the theory of business cycle: I - slowing down and ending of the period of reduction of productive activity, II - entry into a period of accelerated economic development, III - continuation of growth along with slowing down of its rate, until a maximum productive activity of the economy is attained, IV - entry into a stage of intensifying recession. Then, the author identifies factors which cause a regularity of fluctuations on a path to the development, focusing on changes in the global demand: an "old" demand (renewable in its volume and structure) and a "new" demand (demand on goods inaccesible in the previous business cycles). A theoretical part of the study contains an original explanation of a mechanism which generates the economy to pass through the four consecutive stages of a cycle. The mechanism was shown in a conceptual diagram where a time sequence of interaction among different categories was specified. These categories are: changes in components of a global demand, stocks, output volume, proces, inclination of enterprises to get bigger profits, propensity to save, changes of demand for credits, changes in investments, interest rates, import and export. This is a set of many links of the feedback along with time-legs in adjustment of one quantity to anotheer. This mechanisms' activity, calles a mechanism of changes in the business cycle, has been verified for the Polish economy cince 1990, having in mind: stage one - deepening recession (January 1990 - June 1990), stage two - stagnation in recession (July 1990 - February 1992), stage three - business revival (March 1992 - January 1994), stage four - economic growth (since February 1994). A descriptive method is used to verify the mechanisms, with a reference to statistical data collected in the RIED (replies of big-scale enterprises to questions of the industrial survey).