Przydatność testu koniunktury w prognozowaniu sytuacji na rynku usług ubezpieczeniowych

The paper presents the assessment of the applicability of business cycle analysis in the prediction of the economic situation in insurance markets. These analyses were composed from predictions based on three indicators, which are according to the author the most important for estimates of business tendencies on the Polish insurance market. These are total value of gained premium, total loss ratio, and the general financial situation. These analyses were mainly based on systematic, quarterly data gathered by the Marketing Research Department of Poznan University of Economics, which has been conducting business tendency surveys for ten years. Comprehensive and comparative analysis of diagnostic and prognostic series consisting of 35 elements of conjuncture balances for a period starting from the second quarter of 1993 till the fourth quarter of 2001 were made.