Ogólny wskaźnik koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej

The article presents to concept of composite indicator of business activity for Poland based on monthly data reflecting the activity levels in the main sectors of the economy (industry, construction, agriculture, transports and trade) accounts for 60-80% of the GDP. Three alternative specifications of the composite index field with the data covering the period from 1975 to 1995, have been analyzed using the X11-ARIMA model and the OECD PAT procedure to identify the cyclical component movements. The discussion of the results has been preceded by a brief presentation of the basic concepts and procedures used in the analysis. The deseasonalized and detrended time series of the composite index reveal distinct fluctuations of the shape typical of the business cycle. The implant chronology of the cycles and characteristics of the amplitudes have been presented at some prevented with graphs showing the reconstructed picture of fluctuations