The paper addresses the sensitivity of a novel method for quantifying the
environmental risks associated with the current-driven transport of adverse impacts
released from offshore sources (e.g. ship traffic) with respect to the spatial resolution
of the underlying hydrodynamic model. The risk is evaluated as the probability
of particles released in different sea areas hitting the coast and in terms of the
time after which the hit occurs (particle age) on the basis of a statistical analysis
of large sets of 10-day long Lagrangian trajectories calculated for 1987–1991 for
the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The relevant 2D maps are calculated using
the OAAS model with spatial resolutions of 2, 1 and 0.5 nautical miles (nm) and
with identical initial, boundary and forcing conditions from the Rossby Centre 3D
hydrodynamic model (RCO, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute).
The spatially averaged values of the probability and particle age display hardly
any dependence on the resolution. They both reach almost identical stationary
levels (0.67–0.69 and ca 5.3 days respectively) after a few years of simulations.
Also, the spatial distributions of the relevant fields are qualitatively similar for all
resolutions. In contrast, the optimum locations for fairways depend substantially on
the resolution, whereas the results for the 2 nm model differ considerably from those
obtained using finer-resolutionmodels. It is concluded that eddy-permitting models
with a grid step exceeding half the local baroclinic Rossby radius are suitable for
a quick check of whether or not any potential gain from this method is feasible,
whereas higher-resolution simulations with eddy-resolving models are necessary for
detailed planning. The asymptotic values of the average probability and particle
age are suggested as an indicator of the potential gain from the method in question
and also as a new measure of the vulnerability of the nearshore of water bodies to
offshore traffic accidents.
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