Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics
Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics
Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight
simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3) driven
with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs) are compared with
results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980
–2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not
be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because
biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future
projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present
climate affect the sensitivity of the model’s response to changing climate due
to the ice-albedo feedback. From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario
simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during
the control period 1980–2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of
atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion.
For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961
–2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled
atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential
to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably,
because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more
realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary
data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer
to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the
parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.
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