Attributing mean circulation patterns to physical phenomena in the Gulf of Finland

We studied circulation patterns in the Gulf of Finland, an estuary-like sub-basin of the Baltic Sea. According to previous observations and model results, the long-term mean circulation in the gulf is cyclonic and mainly density driven, whereas short-term circulation patterns are wind driven. We used the high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model NEMO to simulate the years 2012–2014. Our aim was to investigate the role of some key features, like river runoff and occasional events, in the formation of the circulation patterns. Our results show that many of the differences visible in the annual mean circulation patterns from one year to another are caused by a relatively small number of high current speed events. These events seem to be upwelling-related coastal jets. Although the Gulf of Finland receives large amounts of fresh water in river runoffs, the inter-annual variations in runoff did not explain the variations in the mean circulation patterns.