Ist Putins Russland für den Westen verloren? Eine Situationsanalyse mit Blick auf den deutsch-russischen Außenhande

Ukraine crisis affected Western economic relationship to Russia seriously by bilateral and multilateral sanctions. Trade volumes of goods between Germany and Russia decline since 2013, leading to shrinking economic integration of Russia as well in bilateral as in global trade. Trade restrictions induced an intensified quantitative disappearing of Russia in the German global trade, reducing this partnership to a minor role at the aggregated level. Nevertheless Russia remains an important partner in sectoral perspectives, especially in natural gas and oil, where Russia holds increasing dominant market positions in the German domestic market. According this both conflict parties reveal strong economic incentives for normalization processes in economic exchange. Long term perspectives depend on the capability of Russia to modernize its economic sector with respect to innovation what provides for Western economies new opportunities to engage in a sustainable partnership.