Oil trade in the context of oil price fluctuations at the turn of 2014 and 2015

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: Oil is one of the commodities with the highest global demand and the largest trade volumes. It is useful both as a raw material tapped to produce other goods, and, when processed, as a commodity in its own right. The purpose of the article is to present the directions of impact of oil price changes on its trade and to analyse factors affecting crude oil prices in period 2014‑2015 in the context of quick decrease of prices started in 2014. These analyses are crucial since changes of oil prices cannot be only explained by supply and demand. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: Research topics were formulated as questions: Who is responsible for the slump in the prices of the most important global energy source in the international raw material market? What events in the global market caused the slump in oil prices? Did the slump in oil prices increase oil trade in 2014 and 2015? The article is largely conceptual, based on literature surveys, the analysis of sources and statistical data, comparative analysis, and the descriptive method. THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: The argument is composed of four basic parts. The first deals with the chief oil price-shaping mechanisms and their division into long-term and short-term drivers. The second outlines the situation in the global oil market in 2014. The third analyzes the causes of the slump in oil prices in 2014 and 2015. And, lastly, the fourth presents the possible impact of the slump on international oil trade. RESEARCH RESULTS: Chief price-shaping mechanisms in the oil market include: the supply-demand mechanism, global economic growth, OPEC policy, fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, geopolitical events, and the effect of speculation. Even though it is not possible to determine the precise role of each of these factors in shaping the situation in the oil market in 2014/2015, it seems that the slump in prices was primarily caused by a boost in shale oil production in the United States and the OPEC’s “price war” strategy. CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The situation in the global market in 2017 is likely to be influenced by the OPEC’s decision to reduce oil extraction taken at the summit in Vienna on 30 November 2016. From January 2017, production is to go down to 32.5 million barrels per day and the move is expected to stop the downward price trend. An increase in oil prices could already be noted the day after the decision; however, analysts doubt that the trend will last.