Expression of the transport sector operational efficiency evaluation methodology (trends) at different stages of the economic cycle

It is important to evaluate the impact of economic fluctuations on the transport sector operational efficiency, since such an analysis is a source of economic information which contributes to the identification of the sector's potential and advantages, the establishment of the risky areas of activity, and the exploration of the opportunities to increase its effectiveness. The aim of the study was to apply mathematical evaluation methods to the exploration of the operational efficiency of the Lithuanian transport sector companies and, based on the outcomes, to validate the opportunity of predicting a potential change of the economic cycle. The operational efficiency of the Lithuanian transport sector was analysed in the context of the cyclical national economy, and not in individual economic boom or recession periods, as that allowed for more detailed evaluation of the specific activities of the sector and its impact on Lithuanian economy. To achieve the aim, three different stages of the economic cycle in Lithuania were identified, and calculations were made during them. Based on the aggregate financial data, four different economic efficiency indicators were developed that reflected the efficiency level of the entire transport sector, and the sensitivity of the transport sector to economic fluctuations was identified. The comparison of the changes in the transport sector and in Lithuanian economy made it obvious that the level of the sector's operational efficiency could be regarded as a leading indicator of the economic cycle.