Prediction of infectious diseases:an exception reporting system

In this paper prediction methods are discussed in the context of developing an exception reporting system for laboratory reports. The detection of outbreaks and longer term trends is briefly addressed, before a consideration of data types and availability to be used in evaluating the prediction methods. Four general prediction methods are outlined and the selection of data to which they are applied is examined. Both real and simulated data are used to evaluate the prediction methods and a strategy for an exception reporting system is proposed.