Application of the probablistic-fuzzy method for assessment of a dangerous situation of a ship manoeuvring in a restricted area

This article presents practical application of the probabilistic-fuzzy method for assessment of the safety of a ship manoeuvring in fairways. The method, based on the probabilistic risk analysis and elements of fuzzy logic, allows to account for a situation of threatened safety and a situation when a navigator intuitively thinks that the safety of manoeuvring ship is threatened. The probability of grounding of a ship manoeuvring in a fairway bend was determined. Then, with the use of experts’ knowledge and tools of fuzzy logic the probability of a dangerous situation was determined. Two different approaches, discussed in Part 1, have been applied for the determination of the probability. The results were compared.