Geothermal Potential of the Lublin Trough is Low-temperature and North-concentrated. What May Be Environmental Impact of Their Use?

The geothermal potential is challenging to assess, as on the one hand it requires subsurface parametric description; on another – the variable surface influences the potential and geological conditions. In the article, the author presents a novel method for assessing geothermal potential and its environmental impact. The procedure is implemented to evaluate the geothermal potential of the Lublin trough. Geological modelling and GIS analyses are used to determine prospective areas where geothermal water accessibility and sufficient head demand occur in the direct vicinity. Maximal geothermal heat production is estimated, and upon that – possible avoided emissions of air pollutants. The study results indicate that this region's geothermal resources are of low temperature (<50°C), so the only opportunity for exploitation is the direct use of geothermal water in objects or the operation of ultra-low-temperature district heating systems. The main geothermal energy production potential of the Lublin trough is in its northern part, close to the Warszawa trough and nearby main fracture zones. In total, up to 300 GWh of geothermal heat per year might be produced and consumed in the study area if residential and commercial objects could take advantage of ultra-low-temperature district heating system. It would lead to locally significant limitation of air pollutant emissions and decreased fossil fuel consumption.