On the Safety of Suborbitalrocket Launches from the Polish Coast

This paper presents a rocket flight safety analysis using methods from the internationally recognized standard RCC 321-20 with an emphasis on a suborbital launch from the Polish coast. Currently, several entities are launching (or planning to launch) suborbital rockets and land them in the Baltic sea – and such flights are expected to be performed using more and more capable rockets with increasing launch frequency. While the present approach in Poland is to close a predefined air space, monitor or close the maritime zone to any traffic and ensure that the impact point dispersion of all rocket elements will fit within that restricted area, established and proven methods often take advantage of advanced calculations of flight risk to the public, aircraft and vessels. This paper demonstrates this approach and compares relative rocket or missile flight safety from Poland to other locations frequently used for such exercises. The results of this work may also be beneficial when planning safety measures for military exercises involving missiles.