Usefulness of the adopted method for the number of aviation occurrences prediction

Poland – according to ICAO requirements, is obliged to conduct analyses of the coefficients adopted to assess the level of safety in civil aviation. They are carried out on the basis of the data contained in the ECCAIRS database. The authors have processed the data contained in this database by analysing them using various criteria (ICAO aviation occurrence categories, flight phases, different airports) to test the methodology of the safety indicators values forecasting and setting their “warning levels”. Exceedance of these levels could be a signal for taking preventive action by the relevant competent aviation authorities. The proposed method is based on the assumption that the determined parameters are governed by normal distribution rules (Gaussian). Parameter values calculated based on real data from 2016 were compared with those predicted a year earlier. It was found that the factors for different events have increased significantly - above the calculated warning levels, particularly for general aviation. The results of this analysis may support competent aviation authorities' decisions in areas where safety risks are most critical.