Assessment of the airframe systems affecting safety risks caused by large aircraft

Hazard is a safety condition that could cause or be a part of unsafe aircraft operation. It also has an impact on aviation safety related to aircraft systems as well as services. Safety risk is a part of so-called safety management and is the predicted probability and severity of the outcomes of a hazard. Aircraft utilized by airlines and cargo operators which have MTOM >5700 kg are defined by authors as a large aircraft and have to be treated in their systems reliability analysis separately from small aircraft. Despite the fact that both types of aircraft categories events are included in the same databases - European Coordination Centre for Aviation Incident Reporting Systems (ECCAIRS) and Aircraft Continuing Airworthiness Monitoring (ACAM), due to different predominant systems failures could not be considered in the same way. The authors have performed processing of the data contained in available databases analysing large aircraft airframe systems faults, which were assigned to the specific ATA chapters. The most frequently occurring defects of the aircraft systems were identified. The goal of this article is to present a method of the current reliability of large aircraft systems assessment. Based on it, the authors are proposing a way of safety risk estimation and prediction of the safety levels for the next two years. The results of this analysis may support the decisions of supervisory authorities in the areas where security threats are most important. They can also help aircraft operators with identification of the aircraft systems, which require special attention.