Projections of the fuel consumption by the road transport in Poland

The article presents expert estimates for 2010 and a forecast up to year 2030 regarding the number of passenger cars as well as trucks and special vehicles and buses according to the maximum weight group. In case of trucks and special vehicles, included were vehicles with maximum weight of less than 3.5 Mg and maximum weight of more than 3.5 Mg. As regards buses – the condition and forecast number of buses with maximum weight of less than 5.0 Mg and more than 5.0 Mg was presented. The forecast concerning passenger cars and other types of vehicles with maximum weight of less than 3.5 Mg (5.0 Mg in case of buses) focused on the number of vehicles by type of energy. The following types of energy were included: petrol, diesel oil, LPG, NG and electrical energy in case of passenger cars and light duty trucks. Estimates also included the average annual statistical mileage of a vehicle registered in Poland according to the specified category and type of energy. Based on the assumed assumptions in the 2030 perspective – the average fuel consumption was determined per 100 km of statistical mileage in every specified category. The predicted consumption of respective types of energy by the overall Polish car fleet was calculated and according to the specified category in years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.