Prediction of estimates of technical object’s reliability on the basis of damage determined from lindberg levy’s claim and multiplicity of the set specified from ergodicity stream damage

During the exploitation one problem still unsolved is that of determining reliability characteristics for single (individual or small set) technical object. This particularly concerns identification of damage set (parametrical and momentary) as well as determination of substitute cardinality of objects set, where in fact this equals 1, 2, 3 at the most. The article presents a method of determining parametrical and momentary damages from iteration equations: D K= aRb DK + bRbU , (1) UW = aRc U + bRc DK , (2) where: DK – complex diagnostic signal, UW – net environment signal (manner of use), aRb – technical condition parameter, aRc – exploitation condition parameter (exploitation potential), bRb – parameter of environment (manner of use) influence intensity on technical condition, bRc – intensity parameter of technical condition (physical wear) influence on technical object operation quality. Assumption is made that if current value of aRb technical condition parameter is higher than aRb dop (permissible) stemming from central limit theorem, parametrical damage occurs and analogically if value of exploitation condition parameter aRc is higher that aRc dop, momentary damage occurs. Additional assumption is made that substitute cardinality of objects set might be deputized by properly long observation of single object, as resulting from assumption of damage flux ergodicity. Therefore, having damages number (parametrical and momentary) and large enough substitute cardinality for a single object, unreliability estimators might be calculated and thus reliability characteristics of technical object. Presented method of determining reliability characteristics is based on virtually not dangerous parametrical and momentary damages that occur before extremely dangerous catastrophic damage. Method has been verified in practices on bearing systems of two pump complexes of second grade pump station in Jurowce Water Purification Plant of Białystok Water Department.