Characteristic features of the process of growth in the mileage of hybrid vehicles

For a few years, the sales of motor vehicles with hybrid drive systems (referred to as “hybrid vehicles” or “HVs”) have been rapidly growing. However, there is a lack of information about the intensity of operation of vehicles classified in this category, which is completely new. A calculation procedure has been presented that enabled evaluation of the HV mileage growth rate. An analysis of this rate provides grounds for forecasting the changes that are likely to take place in the fleet of motor vehicles, such as the progress in the process of replacement of conventional vehicles with vehicles with alternative drive systems, and this may be a basis for predicting the reduction in fuel consumption and exhaust emissions. Models of the HV mileage growth process have been defined for three different countries. They indicate high mileage growth rates in the initial period of vehicle operation, e.g. until the fourth year of operation of the Auris H cars. The highest mileage growth rates in this period were observed in the Netherlands and Poland. In Germany, this rate was lower by 41%. Significant differences in the intensity of vehicle operation have been observed between the behaviour of HV owners in the countries under analysis. A considerable drop in the annual HV mileage as early as in the fifth and sixth year of vehicle operation is an alarming signal.