Modelling the impact of SME lending on business value added

The SME lending covers a list of its needs related to its day-to-day performance, fixed assets, development. Existing methods of identifying impact on economic indicators from using loans by SMEs are limited. The aim of the research is to develop a methodology which allows reveal the impact of SME lending on business value added on macroeconomic level. The methodology is based on correlation regression analysis in order to identify the level of loan influence on business development, value added in particular, due to the lack of adequate methods for SME development forecasting. The obtained results are sufficient for medium business and be used in forecasting medium business development in Ukraine. For small business model has insufficient density of the relationship between indicators, therefore, it was proposed to use additional factors as equity; liabilities and non-economic factors exemplified as the level of shadow economy.