Semi-Markov model of quality state changes of a selected transport system

The study deals with the problems connected with evaluation and analysis of transport systems operational quality. The research object is a real, sociotechnical system (of the type H-M-E) whose functional quality is affected by: operators, equipment and technical state of he operated vehicles and the environmental impact. A scheme of an assessment model was built on the basis of a developed concept of a system operational quality and a random process was defined to be used for the analysis. The assessment process involves investigating the variability degree of properties included in the resultant model in a given time and determining whether and to what degree the obtained values meet the requirements of the system appropriate operational quality. On the basis of the above assumptions and in result of experimental tests, four qualitative states of a transport system functioning, which represent intervals of values of the obtained grades in given time moments, were distinguished. The study presents a model of system operation qualitative state changes developed with the use of Markov chain inserted into a certain semi-Markov process. A graph and a matrix for probability of transition between the states were created and boundary distributions of the process were determined on the basis of experimentally obtained data. A system of equations was determined for the distinguished Markov chain, on the basis of which a mathematical model for assessment and control of operational quality of selected types of transport systems will be built.