Modelling of expected traffic smoothness in urban transportation systems for ITS solutions

In urban networks, with dense traffic flows and a high risk of the disruption (even in the form of a short queue of vehicles) the probability of occurrence of such a situation (disruption and queue) is a better measure of the probabilistic description of the capacity constraints than the expected waiting time in the queue, because the probability takes into account the risk of delay in the traffic flow from the point of view of the person that plans a trip. The functions of expected smoothness of the traffic flows in the elementary nodes and the expected waiting time in the queue for different packages of ITS services have been presented in the mathematical forms.