Indirect observation of rerouting phenomena in traffic networks – case study of Warsaw bridges

In this paper we propose estimation procedure in which traffic flows resulting from rerouting model are matched with traffic flows observed during unexpected events. We show practical value of observing a entire cut-set of the transportation network and propose theoretical closed-form formulation of estimation problem for the rerouting model. We apply proposed framework on field-data from Warsaw bridges to observe rerouting phenomena. Most importantly we observed that: a) around 20% of affected traffic flow reroutes, b) rerouting flows are increasing in time, c) drivers show strategic capabilities, d) and maximize their utility while rerouting. All of the which were hypothesized in Information Comply Model (Kucharski et. al., 2014) and are now supported with field observations.