Solar generation estimation in electric power systems for prospective frequency control studies

Increasing the presence of non-conventional clean energy sources in Electrical Power Systems (EPS) is a global strategic goal. Particularly, photovoltaic systems are attractive due to their versatility, low maintenance cost, easy installation, noiselessness, etc. However, the integration of photovoltaic systems into EPS increases the necessary regulation actions performed by system generators due to stochastic fluctuations of solar radiation, especially on cloudy days. Even using complex models that consider many variables, solar irradiation and its corresponding photovoltaic power generation are difficult variables to forecast with accuracy in cloudy day scenarios. To address this problem, Energy Storage Systems (BESS) have been proposed as a solution to mitigate the variability of photovoltaic generation, which reduce the need to use traditional spinning reserves and provide auxiliary grid services. The BESS selection required to mitigate photovoltaic generation is directly related to the worst-case daily variability of photovoltaic generation in the short term. This paper proposes a practical estimation of daily perspective photo voltage solar generation curve in Electrical Power Systems.