Wpływ poziomu stóp procentowych oraz wielkości luki Taylora na prawdopodobieństwo bankructwa banków w Polsce

This work describes the influence of monetary and interest rate policy of Poland’s central bank on the risk-taking of Polish commercial banks. The panel data analysis and data of twelve banks were used to find the relationship between banks’ Expected Default Frequency (EDF), which is the measure of probability of bankruptcy, and variables such as interest rate levels and Taylor’s gaps. The results suggest that at the beginning the lowering of interest rate decrease the probability of bankruptcy but in a long-run horizon this probability increases. The second outcome is that the increase of banks’ Expected Default Frequency can be a result of lowering interest rates below the level given by the Taylor rule, which was proposed by John B. Taylor. Both takeaways are crucial to understand how current monetary and interest rate policy in Poland and in other main economies can influence financial institutions’ activity.