The analysis of the risk of an accident between a passenger ship and a tanker carrying hazardous substances in the Western Baltic

The paper presents an analysis of the accident between a passenger ship moving on the route Swinoujscie Ystad with tanker carrying hazardous substances category X. In order to assess the safety of navigation in the study area the authors have developed a probabilistic domain, which aims to estimate the number of incidents of navigation on the basis of real data from AIS and to find potentially dangerous areas, where there is the highest number of incidents. Then the vessel traffic model was built and the model of navigational safety assessment to evaluate the probability of Ro-Pax Ferry-Chemical tanker collision. Finally the consequences assessment of collision between Ro-Pax and chemical tanker carrying ammonia was performed, taking into consideration ammonia release.