Road safety analysis in Poland using time-series modelling techniques

A number of international studies argue that there is a correlation between the number of traffic fatalities and the degree of public activity. The studies use the unemployment rate to support that argument. As unemployment grows miles travelled fall, a factor known to affect road safety. This relationship seems to be true for Poland, as well. The model presented in the paper is intended to prove it. It is a structural time-series local level model with the explanatory variable (the unemployment rate) and some interventions. Because of the dynamic nature of traffic safety developments it lends itself very well to modelling in that way.