A resilience model based on Stochastic Poison Process

Critical Infrastructure (CI) Preparedness and Resilience modelling, simulation & analysis (MS&A) is a major issue in CI protection (CIP) and crisis management. This is due to the rapid growth of the inference of the smart complex systems in the modern society activities. The concept of resilience in CIP is not yet clearly defined. However, “resilience” is often used as a measure of the system good behaviour facing a given threat. Under a given threat, a CI may evolve within a set of well-defined operating phases. Subsequently, the failure of the CI to provide the expected service will depend not only on the threat nature but also on the operating phase. A tentative probabilistic model is proposed describing the robustness and the resilience of a well-defined infrastructure facing a given threat.