An assessment of reliability of a blast wall using limited statistical information on blast loading

A design of a blast wall is considered. Methods of structural reliability analysis and quantitative risk assessment are applied to the design. The basic idea of this design is to apply a probability of failure of cladding components as a criterion of damage to the cladding. This probability is used as an estimate of the proportion of cladding components destroyed by an explosion. The cladding failure probability is estimated by quantifying and propagating uncertainties related to a mechanical model of cladding and elements of the statistical sample containing records of blast loading. It is demonstrated how to estimate the cladding failure probability when the size of this sample is small from the standpoint of classical statistics. The case study included in the paper considers a design of a cladding for a blast wall to be deployed for protecting a fuel tank against an explosion of a railroad tank car.