Critical Infrastructures Protection (CIP) : coupled modelling for threats and resilience

Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) requires the development of models and tools able to describe and simulate the threats’ and the Critical Infrastructure’s (CI) dynamic behaviour. However, these modelling activities are very often carried out separately for threats and for CI behaviour. An effective assessment of the CI’s resilience and preparedness requires real coupled models of threats dynamic and CI’s one. The authors develop some basic ideas about coupled modelling in the sense of coupling the dynamics of the threat with that of the CIs, within a stochastic modelling approach. Such coupled dynamic models would enhance the effectiveness of our capabilities to assess CI’s resilience and to help in decision making for crisis management.